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| Call | Issued | Outcome | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 中性/持有:12 个月目标价 $268(概率加权),较 2026-08-21 收盘 $261.95 高 2.3%;基准情景权重 50%,对应 FY2027 调整后摊薄每股收益 $8.70 × 31x = $270。 | 2026-08-21 | Open | — |
| 约束在供给侧,不在需求侧:公司自述订单超过履约能力,存货天数由 74 升至 113 天,2026 上半年资本开支 2.859 亿美元已超 2025 全年 2.20 亿。 | 2026-08-21 |
| — |
| EMEA 的有机收缩是区域性的,不是全局性的:2026 上半年 EMEA 有机 −14.8%,同期美洲 +31.0%、亚太 +19.6%,且 EMEA 经营利润率由 20.8% 升至 22.1%。 | 2026-08-21 | Open | — |
| 订单披露的中断是信息事件,不是业绩事件:中断发生在季度有机订单增速创纪录(+252%)之后而非之前,同期收入、毛利率、现金流均无恶化,且公司同时上调了全年指引。 | 2026-08-21 | Open | — |
| 评级中性/持有,12 个月概率加权目标价 $167(流通股本口径;全面摊薄口径 $155)。基本面处于全球软件业第一梯队,但 66.8 倍市销率已计入未来五年近乎完美的执行。 | 2026-08-13 | Open | — |
| 非共识发现②:公司 2026 年 1 月终止股份回购(累计仅执行授权额度 14%),在现金充裕、自由现金流即将翻倍的背景下,构成管理层对自身股价的沉默表态。 | 2026-08-13 | Open | — |
| 回报分布高度不对称:上行 +40.3%、下行 −48.0%,左尾更厚。本标的应以仓位管理而非方向判断对待。 | 2026-08-13 | Open | — |
| 美国商业收入同比增速是本论点的命门变量:维持 100% 以上支持乐观情景,跌破 70% 触发悲观情景。 | 2026-08-13 | Open | — |
| 非共识发现①:递延所得税估值备抵的转回将在未来某时点显著抬高账面税率,而当前市场盈利预测普遍未纳入这一因素。 | 2026-08-13 | Open | — |
Method: every call registered in the period is shown — nothing is selected out. Hit rate = hits ÷ (hits + misses); open calls are excluded from the denominator. Outcomes are judged against the falsification conditions stated in each report. Past performance does not indicate future results. Not investment advice.