Palantir (PLTR) Deep Research — Audited Revision

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) — company deep dive. 73 pages, 12 chapters plus three appendices. Data as of 13 August 2026; financials through Q2 2026 (reported 3 August).

Key figures

Metric	Latest	Year ago	Basis
Q2 2026 revenue	$1,936m	$1,004m	+93%, ninth consecutive quarter of acceleration
US commercial revenue	$764m	$306m	+149%
GAAP operating margin	47%	27%	—
Adjusted operating margin	62%	45%	company definition
Adjusted free cash flow	$1,220m	$569m	63% margin
Net dollar retention	157%	128%	trailing twelve months
Remaining deal value	$13.1bn	—	≈2.9× FY2025 revenue
Price / sales (TTM)	66.8x	—	peer median ≈11x

Source: SEC filings (10-Q, 8-K exhibit 99.1) and company earnings calls. Price and valuation basis: 12 August 2026 close.

Valuation and rating

Scenario	Probability	FY2027 revenue	Target P/S	Target price	vs spot
Bull	25%	$13.0bn	45x	$240	+40.3%
Base	50%	$12.1bn	34x	$169	−1.2%
Bear	25%	$10.8bn	20x	$89	−48.0%
Probability-weighted	100%	—	—	$167	−2.5%

Source: our estimates. Rating is Neutral / Hold, defined as expected relative return against the S&P 500 over the twelve months from 13 August 2026. On a fully diluted share count the weighted target is $155 (−9.4%); the rating is the same under either share-count basis. Each scenario's trigger conditions and assumptions are listed in chapter 12.

What the report covers

Ch.	Subject	What it establishes
3	Ownership and governance	Three founders control 49.999999% of votes on 5.9% of economics (92 votes short of a majority of 4.56bn); insider sales separated into plan-driven and discretionary
4	Networks	The Thiel network, the dual relationship with Anduril, and a named map of the government revolving door
5 / 6	Government and commercial	Government is 54% of revenue; US government +90%, US commercial TCV +153%; how FedStart turns compliance into a product
8	Financial analysis	Revenue growth split into volume / price / acquisition / definitional change; operating cash flow versus net income reconciled; fully diluted share count rebuilt
10	Valuation and reverse engineering	The current price implies $25bn of free cash flow in 2031 — five straight years of roughly 40% compound growth
12	Investment conclusion	17 tracking indicators with current value, bull threshold, bear threshold and disclosure date; every contested point gets a bull-case / bear-case / our-call comparison

Audited revision

After the draft was complete, five independent audit passes were run (financials and valuation; ownership and governance; government contracts; commercial and supply chain; summary and risk), each instructed to find errors rather than sign off, and each reconciled line by line against the SEC originals. They raised roughly 70 challenges; everything that affected a conclusion was revised. An appendix publishes about 20 material revisions in a three-column table: original wording, revised wording, nature of the change. Example: Cohen's holding was corrected from an estimated 40.2m shares to 13.53m verified from Form 4.

Sources and verifiability

All 43 numbered citations carry URLs. SEC originals (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K, DEF 14A, Form 4) are the first-priority source; key figures require corroboration from at least two independent sources; earnings-call quotations are checked against two independent transcripts. Claims carry [A]/[B]/[C]/[D] evidence grades. Appendix C lists, item by item, the data gaps and the questions this report could not resolve.

How this was prepared, and its limits

Compiled independently by the TopX research team from public information, then reviewed and revised before release by professional investment managers and fund managers with asset-management experience. Reviewers take part in a personal capacity, do not represent their respective employers, and provide no investment advisory services through TopXEA; TopXEA holds no investment-adviser licence in any jurisdiction. Primary filings (SEC, exchanges, company disclosures) are the first-priority source, key figures require corroboration from at least two independent sources, claims carry [A]/[B]/[C]/[D] evidence grades, and known limitations are disclosed item by item inside the report. This is research content — not investment advice — and is not tailored to any investor; historical data and forward projections do not guarantee future results. Digital goods are non-refundable once delivered.