Перевод на русский пока недоступен; показана английская версия.
Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) company deep dive, first edition. Two PDFs — Chinese (182 pp) and English (234 pp) — each with 16 chapters plus 4 appendices, 26 figures and 109 data tables, cell-for-cell consistent across the two versions; every computed number is derived in Appendix D. Data as of 2026-09-29; financials to 2026-06-30 (10-Q filed 2026-08-10); filing cutoff 2026-09-29.
The question this report answers
In eight months Riot turned 241 MW of its 1.45 GW of approved power into two leases: AMD 50 MW and an unnamed frontier AI lab 191 MW (20 years, $9.1bn). The bill was paid with bitcoin inventory: holdings fell from 19,287 to 11,380 BTC, $1.14bn of coins were sold over four quarters, while the mining segment's cash contribution was $0.23bn. The report puts both clocks on one balance sheet: the inventory clock and the financing clock for 191 MW, where the investment-grade backstop so far exists only in one filed sentence and two furnished exhibits, and Morgan Stanley's $573M interim facility matures no earlier than 15 October and no later than 31 December. An event study shows the market did not price the $9.1bn as settled; once holdings, both leases and the miner fleet are removed at the company's own basis, what remains of enterprise value sits on 1.2 GW of power with no binding contract. The report gives the price the market is implicitly paying for that power, its distance from comparable transactions, and the discount rate it would take to justify.
What the report delivers
- Contract ledger: every term of both leases with its filing grade (filed vs furnished kept apart), the six verifiable numbers and ten unavailable items on the 191 MW lease, $/kW-month and payback against twelve peer leases.
- Credit structure: a status table for seven items (backstop, interim facility, two AMD loans, takeout project debt, the ATM and the Coinbase facility); both readings of the bridge maturity side by side; management quotes from three independent transcripts.
- Power and sites: how much of the 1,292 MW of developed capacity the miners occupy, when the 345 MW fixed-price PPA rolls off, scarcity of existing interconnection under SB 6 and Batch Zero, three build-cost tiers per MW and comparable $/MW transactions.
- Bitcoin inventory and mining economics: quarterly coin-sale ledger, the doubling of direct cost per coin decomposed, the hashprice series, the fleet's accounting endpoint and the 2028 halving.
- Financial quality: why operating cash flow is negative by construction, why the company's Adjusted EBITDA swings with the coin price, ten quarters of operating EBITDA with that effect removed, a nine-item window-dressing checklist, incremental ROIC.
- Capital structure and a twelve-month cash ledger: debt line by line, three share-count bases and full dilution, ATM history, a month-by-month ledger to target-date net debt on one set of books.
- Governance: what the incentives measure, the 2024 one-off grants, insider trades line by line, the chief data center officer's forfeiture.
- Price-implied analysis: E1 reverse valuation, E2 event study, E3 peer percentiles, E4 option-implied range, E5 positioning and short structure, BTC beta over five windows.
- Valuation and operating framework: two paths, a three-scenario price ladder, probability sources with ±10pp sensitivity, the strongest bull combination, a migration-conditions box; a decision chapter in operating-research format; risks ranked by observability; a misreadings chapter; falsification conditions and a catalyst path.
After drafting, the text went through two rounds of full-text review (round one on four tracks: financials and valuation / contracts, sites and governance / tradability and process / presentation and wording; round two on five: a skeptic's rebuttal / tradability / a financial re-check / ZH–EN consistency / presentation re-check). Together they raised 236 challenges, and the 65 substantive revisions are published in the Appendix C revision log. Two deserve stating up front. The first round found that the draft model priced Corsicana's 600 MW of approved-but-unbuilt power at the same rate as energized capacity and ignored tax depreciation on the 191 MW project and the 2028 halving; the model was rebuilt with three separately priced power pools, a tax shield and mining cash flows truncated at the halving. In the second round the skeptic's rebuttal found that the "all inputs at their most favorable end" combination was not a true union and that the three scenarios bundled bitcoin-price moves with the trigger events; the model now takes the union of ten inputs and treats the bitcoin price as a separate orthogonal sensitivity, which moved that upper bound from roughly the current price to above it, and the scenarios and target were re-derived. The direction of the rating did not change.
Primary sources: SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001167419) 10-K, the 10-Q for each period, 8-Ks with exhibits, DEF 14A, 39 Forms 4 and 4/A, 13 Schedule 13Gs; XBRL companyfacts; ERCOT and PUCT public records; Nasdaq and Coinbase prices, FINRA short interest, the Nasdaq option chain; the latest filings of ten peers.
How this report was produced, and disclaimer
Compiled independently by the TopX research team from public information, then reviewed and revised before release by professional investment managers and fund managers with asset-management experience. Reviewers take part in a personal capacity, do not represent their respective employers, and provide no investment advisory services through TopXEA; TopXEA holds no investment-adviser licence in any jurisdiction. Primary filings (SEC, exchanges, company disclosures) are the first-priority source, key figures require corroboration from at least two independent sources, claims carry [A]/[B]/[C]/[D] evidence grades, and known limitations are disclosed item by item inside the report. This is research content: it does not constitute investment advice, an offer or a solicitation and is not tailored to any particular investor. Ratings and target prices are analytical judgments, not instructions to buy or sell; past data and forward projections do not indicate future results.
Conflicts of interest: (1) positions held by the publisher or its affiliates in the subject security: none; (2) business relationship with the subject company or its affiliates: none; (3) the publisher also operates the sale of Expert Advisors (automated trading software, including the EA VIP membership), parameter presets and strategy source code, the TopxAI AI-model API relay service (ai.topxea.com), and TopxAI API credit cards (prepaid credit codes), which have no relationship to the subject; (4) this report is paid for by readers, not by the subject company.
Please note before purchase: digital goods are non-refundable once delivered.
